Decoding The Data Of The Chinese Mpox Outbreak
Sounds pretty bad, right?
It turns out that the reality is a little more complicated. On the WHO website, the most recent data on Mpoxa registered in China is a collection of cases reported in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong (which WHO representatives say are common).
The lack of data segmentation is important here for several reasons. First, although the number of cases in China is increasing, we don't know how many and over what period. China reported 106 cases in June alone, and it can be assumed that there will be additional cases in May and July. (According to Tarik Yasharevich, WHO spokesperson, China reported eight cases of empoxoma infection to WHO in July, but it is unclear when the cases were recorded and whether they represent the entire month. The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has not released any data on cases. for July). Little or no information is available to help us understand the urgency and precise severity of the outbreak , which can lead to panic and unnecessary intervention. In addition, as Covid processing has shown, the Chinese government can hide data for its own purposes.
Also, this combined data report obscures the fact that Taiwan and China, with different governing bodies, have responded to public health emergencies very differently.
While China has shown no interest in using the Mpox vaccine, Taiwan, which has its own CDC, has administered more than 72,000 shots so far. While China releases reports on case numbers in just one month, Taiwan has a public database showing how many new cases are reported each week, making it easier to see how the outbreak is declining six months after it started. Local broadcasting.
Thus, combining multiple data sources creates a confusing picture and makes it difficult to track the impact of public health measures.
This means that even though WHO data shows a 550% increase in new weekly cases in China between July 10 and 17, the jump is by no means a lot. It does not indicate the direction of the smallpox outbreak; This highlights the disjointed and fragmented structure of case reports from China alone.
This is not to say that the outbreak in China can be ignored, but data on the WHO website can easily mislead observers.
